OK guys .... we went out but still this is a beautiful competition and we Milan fans have experienced beautiful memories in it. Almost a decade has passed and yesterday it felt strange. Slighty incomplete. Since 2002-3 we have always looked forward with excitement to the Tuesday / Wednesday UCL QF nights and beyond in all but one season!

Magical times they were. Thanks Carlo. Thanks Milan for the exciting nights. We will be on this stage again at the dawn of the next decade. Until then we can chill, relax and watch these other games as these pretenders try to win it!!

Well ... for what it's worth ... let's discuss what is left of the UCL ... I've got the following thoughts on the games:

ARSE-A.NAL vs. Liverpool

I inquired from a Gooner friend of mine the past few results of Arsenal ... they are listed below:

I've no stats but I'll go back game by game as much as I can remember.

2007-2008(EPL) Pool 1-1 Arsenal (Gerrard,Fabregas)
2006-2007(EPL) Pool 4-1 Arsenal (Crouch scored a hattrick)
2006-2007(Carling Cup) Pool 1-6 Arsenal (Baptista scored a hattrick)
2006-2007(FA Cup) Pool 1-3 Arsenal (Rosicky with 2 wonder goals)
2006-2007(EPL) Arsenal 3-0 Pool (Toure, Gallas, RvP)
2005-2006(EPL) Arsenal 2-1 Pool (Henry (2))
2005-2006(EPL) Pool 1-0 Arsenal (Luis Garcia)
2004-2005(EPL) Arsenal 3-1 Pool (Reyes(2),Fabregas and I guess it was Owen)
2004-2005(EPL) Pool 2-1 Arsenal

Here is what I wrote back (via e-mail) on a mail group to our football club members and colleagues:

Dated: March 18, 2008

Thanks. It's interesting to see that except for that 4-1 win for Pool, Arsenal has basically handed a lesson to Liverpool on most occassions. Now what counts is the run-up to the UCL big one. Pool or Arsenal going into the match with:

-> an undefeated streak
-> clean sheet mini record
-> a streak of goals scored in every match leading up to the big
-> continuous home or continuous away wins

is a disadvantage! A little bit of everything is good but a big streak of any of the above is bad. If I don't consider the above for now (they will be a factor) I can say that Arsenal will win the home leg. The pattern shows that Arsenal is likely to not lose at Anfield. Please remember that I am not comparing the forms of EPL to UCL as I strongly believe that EPL has nothing to do with the UCL when it comes to comparisons or forms.

Let's see now ....

Arsenal - Home Record

Game 1 - Win: 3-0
Game 2 - Win: 7-0
Game 3 - Win: 2-1

Now, watch that streak break against Milan in the Rd-16. Basically a new home win streak can start now.

Rd-16 vs. Milan: 0-0 Draw!

Liverpool - Away Record

Game 1 - Draw: 1-1
Game 2 - Loss: 1-2
Game 3 - Win: 0-4

Rd-16 vs. Inter: 0-1 Win!

Pool has lost on the last three trips to Ashburton Grove and scored two goals in three visits. 3-1, 2-1 and 3-0 wins for Arse. Combining that trend with the UCL away form of Pool and the home form of Arsenal .... it seems that Arsenal is lined up for a win in the first leg in London. Plus, I don't see Pool not losing to Arsenal three games in a row as the trend suggests it.

Right now, not considering the bullet points, Arsenal is lined up for a win. Let's see what happens in the remainder of this month to make this a sure fire prediction. The one bad thing in all this is that Pool has not won in London for a seemingly long time. Long streaks are bad! I'll give a concrete prediction at the end of March when I factor in everything and do some permutations!

Liverpool has 5 straight UCL wins (home and away) which is a longish undefeated streak. Arsenal has 1 win and an undefeated UCL streak of 3 games. Arsenal at this time is HEAVILY favoured to get a home win.


continued in the next posts ...